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Determining
environmental impacts relies on two tools:
- Observed
data over a certain time period that is then extrapolated to predict
future scenarios.
- Model
results using mathematical models that are either theoretical,
empirical, or a combination of both. These models are used to
APPROXIMATE reality and then to forecast future predictions. All
math formulae are models in this sense. With computers, we can
now model many types of scenarios.
There
are pros and cons with both tools, primarily associated with how
"approximate" our predictions are. Future climate predictions
are based primarily of the use of large-scale mathematical models
that rely on our current knowledge of the interactions between the
hydrosphere, lithosphere, atmosphere, and our societal impact on
these three. The science is far from certain. Therefore, it is also
good for you to look at observed data to see if you believe the
current "gloom and doom" predictions about climate change.
Task: Use the NOAA database of climate predictions (www.ncdc.noaa.gov)
to find one location anywhere in the world that has recorded climate
data for approximately 100 years. If you want a more direct link
to one of the many databases at the site then refer to www.ncdc.noaa.gov/ol/climate/climatedata.html.
Pick one parameter to study (temperature, precipitation, or storm
occurrence). Analyze the data over the recorded time period. You
can choose how you want to analyze the data using your previous
coursework, however you need to describe your method (1 page). Include
all graphs, tables, etc. that you generate. Draw conclusions (in
1 page) about any trends you see.
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